Panel: synthetic 504d, seed 7 (plumbing only, not alpha evidence) Tilt bounds observed: [0.70, 1.00] (contract [0.70, 1.00]), weights sum 1.0; assert_no_lookahead PASS
| Leg | Tilt Sharpe | Equal Sharpe | Lift | bootstrap p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gross | 0.54 | 0.58 | -0.04 | 0.892 |
| net10 | 0.53 | 0.58 | -0.05 | 0.946 |
| net25 | 0.51 | 0.58 | -0.07 | 0.986 |
Shadow log (repo): 17 rows, 2 applied, 4 with tilt<1.0 -> SHADOW WAITING
Promotion needs >=30 shadow rows incl. a down month, >=1 tilt<1.0 day, then tilt Sharpe within +-0.1 of equal (flagship_hrp_decision rule). No invvol/HRP/meta-learner until the tilt clears OOS lift>=+0.05, p<0.05, resid>0.
Verdict: MECHANICS PASS + SHADOW WAITING