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"Coinbase premium probe"

2026-09-22

·

US-institutional-flow gauge | IS < 2025-01-01 <= OOS | net 10bps/switch | grid shows IS / OOS Sharpe

BTC — Sharpe grid (IS / OOS)

look \ bandband 0.0band 0.5band 1.0
10+0.40 / +0.77+0.85 / +0.41+1.21 / +0.55
30+0.67 / +0.35+0.30 / +1.11+0.86 / +0.24
60+0.74 / +0.40+0.63 / +0.66+0.89 / +1.04
  • corr(premium_z, etf_flow_z) on overlap (n=410): +0.238

OOS controls (partial IC of premium_z)

targetrawctrl trail retsctrl +same-daycorr w/ perp-premium
fwd1+0.053+0.065+0.068-0.360
fwd5+0.078+0.079+0.083-0.360

ETH — Sharpe grid (IS / OOS)

look \ bandband 0.0band 0.5band 1.0
10+0.59 / -0.11+0.70 / +0.52+1.23 / +0.24
30+0.84 / +0.24+0.92 / +0.57+1.14 / -0.07
60+0.85 / -0.30+1.25 / +0.12+0.46 / +0.75
  • corr(premium_z, etf_flow_z) on overlap (n=292): +0.290

OOS controls (partial IC of premium_z)

targetrawctrl trail retsctrl +same-daycorr w/ perp-premium
fwd1+0.015+0.021+0.021-0.332
fwd5+0.044+0.045+0.045-0.332