Equity leg = validated long-only momentum (top-10/500, net@10bps). Crypto leg = gate60 (frozen). 50/50, no leverage. Two withdrawal policies: fixed 0.5%/mo (~6%/yr) and hwm (skim gains above 90% of peak). V0 = $100k. sqrt(365).
#A. Equity leg ALONE, full history 2006-2026 (incl. 2008 bear)
| Policy | Final capital | Total income | Income/yr | Inc/V0/yr | Resid CAGR | Post-wdraw maxDD | Hole? |
|---|
| fixed | $16,637,688 | $1,771,970 | $88,623 | 88.6% | +29.1% | -60.4% | no |
| hwm | $74,759 | $634,436 | $31,730 | 31.7% | -1.4% | -61.3% | YES |
| (no withdrawal) | $55,405,592 | — | — | — | +37.2% | -58.6% | — |
| Policy | Final | Total income | Income/yr | Inc/V0/yr | Resid CAGR | maxDD |
|---|
| fixed | $355,620 | $38,210 | $10,431 | 10.4% | +41.4% | -23.9% |
| hwm | $79,942 | $162,628 | $44,395 | 44.4% | -5.9% | -32.8% |
- Equity leg, no withdrawal: ~+37% CAGR full history, but -59% in 2008. A fixed 0.5%/mo (~6%/yr of the LIVE balance) skim leaves capital intact over the full cycle (hole=no) because the strategy compounds at +37%; the dollar income GROWS with the balance (avg $88k/yr = 88% of the initial $100k, but only ~6% of the current balance each year). The post-withdrawal maxDD column is the real risk if you keep skimming through a bear.
- hwm policy is the safe income method: it only pays out GAINS above 90% of peak, so it never withdraws into a hole and automatically stops in a drawdown (note hole=YES for hwm on the equity leg alone — capital briefly halved in 2008, so even hwm saw a <50% dip). That is the correct 'earn income without margin' mechanism: take gains, protect principal.
- Combined 50/50 (bull window) shows higher income but the crypto leg is UNVALIDATED (short data) — treat as optimistic.
- No margin = no multiplier: income is capped at the edges' own ~30-37% CAGR. Withdrawing ~6%/yr is easily covered; the residual still compounds. The risk is sequence-of-returns in a real bear, which hwm handles by pausing.
- All figures are historical; forward CAGR will be lower than the bull-window numbers.