Pre-reg: gross = mean(rate)x8760; net = realized(H) - 4 legs amortized; rungs 0/2/10/25bps one-way; horizons 30d/90d. No live leg exists (no perp venue on paper) — venue-blocked either way.
Per-coin full-window accounting
| Coin | Hours | Gross adv | H30 realized | H30 net2 | H30 net10 | H90 realized | H90 net10 | H90 net25 | Neg hrs | Worst H30 | Basis drift H90 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | ADA | 19818 | +3.02% | +2.85% | +1.88% | -2.02% | +3.00% | +1.38% | -1.05% | 30.7% | -16.63% | -0.0017% | | AVAX | 19818 | +5.92% | +5.92% | +4.95% | +1.05% | +6.45% | +4.83% | +2.40% | 25.9% | -17.31% | -0.0000% | | BTC | 19818 | +10.87% | +10.66% | +9.69% | +5.79% | +10.68% | +9.06% | +6.63% | 11.9% | -1.03% | -0.0064% | | DOGE | 19818 | +11.32% | +11.12% | +10.14% | +6.25% | +11.31% | +9.69% | +7.26% | 17.3% | -6.28% | -0.0032% | | ETH | 20136 | +9.96% | +9.68% | +8.71% | +4.81% | +9.56% | +7.94% | +5.50% | 15.4% | -3.68% | -0.0047% | | LINK | 19818 | +13.05% | +12.93% | +11.96% | +8.07% | +13.15% | +11.53% | +9.09% | 5.5% | +5.24% | -0.0016% | | SOL | 19818 | +7.05% | +6.75% | +5.77% | +1.88% | +6.58% | +4.96% | +2.52% | 25.0% | -17.78% | -0.0049% | | XRP | 19818 | +8.17% | +8.00% | +7.03% | +3.14% | +8.09% | +6.46% | +4.03% | 20.7% | -18.32% | -0.0021% |
Persistence gap (advertised illusion)
| Coin | Instant p90 | Realized-30d when instant>=p90 |
|---|---|---|
| ADA | +10.95% | +6.07% |
| AVAX | +10.95% | +8.79% |
| BTC | +18.44% | +20.34% |
| DOGE | +21.29% | +29.99% |
| ETH | +15.45% | +22.39% |
| LINK | +10.96% | +24.26% |
| SOL | +18.71% | +23.52% |
| XRP | +10.95% | +12.19% |
Verdict: VIABLE (coins clearing 4% @H90/net10 + @H30/net2: ['AVAX', 'BTC', 'DOGE', 'ETH', 'LINK', 'SOL', 'XRP'])
- Research-only regardless: no perp venue on Alpaca paper.
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