BTC held [t,t+1] | signal 30d-change z(90), availability +7d | IS<2021-01-01/OOS>= | 10/25bps/flip | placebo = 30d block shuffle x2000.
Bar (reports/crypto_daily_signal_synthesis.md): PASS only if A–E all pass.
Fed net liquidity (PRIMARY) (high)
| check | result | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| A alignment | held SR +0.89 vs lag-1 +1.02 | PASS |
| B incrementality | corr(mom) +0.02, dir-partial-IC -0.008 | FAIL |
| C economics | gross +0.95, net10 +0.89, net25 +0.81, turns 417 | PASS |
| D stability | IS +1.25, OOS +0.12 | PASS |
| E null+power | placebo p 0.326, events 417 | FAIL |
Fed net liquidity (PRIMARY): REJECT
Treasury General Account (low)
| check | result | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| A alignment | held SR +0.52 vs lag-1 +0.52 | PASS |
| B incrementality | corr(mom) -0.07, dir-partial-IC -0.022 | FAIL |
| C economics | gross +0.55, net10 +0.52, net25 +0.48, turns 183 | PASS |
| D stability | IS +0.69, OOS +0.18 | PASS |
| E null+power | placebo p 0.928, events 183 | FAIL |
Treasury General Account: REJECT
Overnight reverse repo (low)
| check | result | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| A alignment | held SR +0.89 vs lag-1 +0.83 | PASS |
| B incrementality | corr(mom) -0.06, dir-partial-IC +0.012 | PASS |
| C economics | gross +0.98, net10 +0.89, net25 +0.75, turns 624 | PASS |
| D stability | IS +1.14, OOS +0.41 | PASS |
| E null+power | placebo p 0.231, events 624 | FAIL |
Overnight reverse repo: REJECT
Broad dollar (DTWEXBGS) (low)
| check | result | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| A alignment | held SR +0.76 vs lag-1 +0.84 | PASS |
| B incrementality | corr(mom) -0.02, dir-partial-IC +0.006 | PASS |
| C economics | gross +0.81, net10 +0.76, net25 +0.69, turns 343 | PASS |
| D stability | IS +1.27, OOS -0.29 | FAIL |
| E null+power | placebo p 0.558, events 343 | FAIL |
Broad dollar (DTWEXBGS): REJECT
WTI oil (high)
| check | result | verdict |
|---|---|---|
| A alignment | held SR +1.00 vs lag-1 +0.98 | PASS |
| B incrementality | corr(mom) +0.04, dir-partial-IC +0.017 | PASS |
| C economics | gross +1.06, net10 +1.00, net25 +0.92, turns 403 | PASS |
| D stability | IS +1.20, OOS +0.66 | PASS |
| E null+power | placebo p 0.181, events 403 | FAIL |
WTI oil: REJECT
Verdict: 0/5 PASS
No exogenous macro candidate clears A–E: the Fed-liquidity / dollar / oil series do not time BTC at the daily horizon net of the alignment, momentum, cost, stability and placebo bars. Only a genuinely exogenous signal that also beats these five checks would justify a full study.