← all research
VALIDATED

"Flagship Regime Hedge (SPY SMA filter)"

2026-08-21

Deployed C59 blend, region-A config | hedge weight applied with prior-close knowledge

Regime filterHedge hCAGRMaxDDSharpeCalmar
baseline (no hedge)+14.12%32.9%0.800.43
SPY<SMA1000.0+8.20%23.0%0.670.36
SPY<SMA1000.25+9.84%19.7%0.760.50
SPY<SMA1000.5+11.37%22.4%0.810.51
SPY<SMA2000.0+7.64%27.1%0.610.28
SPY<SMA2000.25+9.40%23.1%0.720.41
SPY<SMA2000.5+11.07%22.5%0.780.49

Per-year CAGR: baseline vs SPY<SMA200 h=0.5

YearBaselineHedged
2006-0.2%-0.2%
2007-1.5%-1.4%
2008-1.5%-0.7%
2009+71.5%+54.2%
2010+9.9%-1.1%
2011+5.9%+2.4%
2012+21.3%+21.0%
2013+26.7%+26.7%
2014+17.5%+15.0%
2015+8.0%+4.1%
2016-3.1%-1.7%
2017+32.6%+32.6%
2018-10.1%-7.7%
2019+44.0%+29.9%
2020+41.1%+34.7%
2021+15.2%+15.2%
2022-13.4%-15.1%
2023+27.6%+17.8%
2024+3.4%+3.4%
2025+36.5%+32.2%
2026-14.1%-13.9%