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REJECTED

"Holdout Validation — 20 random names (not in flagship universe)"

2026-08-12

Seed: 7 | 20y daily bars | initial $100,000 | region-A config Universe: ABNB, AME, BG, BNY, CPRT, DOC, DUK, HSY, INVH, LII, MDLZ, NFLX, PRU, RTX, SMCI, SNDK, TEL, TJX, TXT, UBER

Portfolio results

Year by year

| 2006 | +0.00% | | 2007 | +0.00% | | 2008 | +0.00% | | 2009 | +22.68% | | 2010 | +12.85% | | 2011 | +12.95% | | 2012 | +14.33% | | 2013 | +48.31% | | 2014 | +13.20% | | 2015 | -0.00% | | 2016 | +21.25% | | 2017 | +10.00% | | 2018 | +4.07% | | 2019 | +15.50% | | 2020 | -11.42% | | 2021 | +29.83% | | 2022 | -12.49% | | 2023 | +17.36% | | 2024 | +26.00% | | 2025 | -7.17% | | 2026 | +0.12% |

35% lock comparison (pre-fix max_drawdown_total 0.35)

Verdict

MIXED / INCONCLUSIVE — random unseen names returned +583.90% vs SPY +757.95% (P/L 1.26).

Breaker effect: the 35% lock retired the strategy for 2023-26 (+0.00%, 867 total trades) vs the live 0.50 setting (+38.25%, 1410 trades).