Bundle: holdout_seed42_n20_y20 | SPY last 5y +85.4%
| Variant | Total | CAGR | MaxDD | PF | Trades | 2022 | 2023-26 | Trades 23-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V0 baseline mdd 0.35 | +145.1% | +4.64% | 38.0% | 1.14 | 1,143 | -29.0% | +0.0% | 0 |
| V1 mdd 0.45 | +396.9% | +8.46% | 39.3% | 1.24 | 1,527 | -24.5% | +91.5% | 670 |
| V2 unlock mdd 9.99 | +396.9% | +8.46% | 39.3% | 1.24 | 1,527 | -24.5% | +91.5% | 670 |
| V3 dd_gate 0.25 | -23.2% | -1.33% | 29.6% | 0.28 | 29 | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0 |
Verdict
BREAKER KILLED A LIVE EDGE: seed-42 went dark in 2023-26 purely from the 35% drawdown lock; with the breaker lifted, 2023-26 turns profitable (+91.5% vs SPY +85.4%, 670 trades). Deploying a resumable/lifted drawdown gate is warranted.