Spec: 09:30-10:00 ET range, first close above range-high after 10:00 -> long next open, exit 15:50, 1 trade/day max, 4bps round trip. Bootstrap p vs zero on traded days.
| Sym | days | traded | ret | Sharpe | maxDD | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 1538 | 920 | -19.81% | -0.24 | -41.0% | 0.688 |
| ABBV | 1536 | 769 | -35.06% | -0.80 | -44.9% | 0.959 |
| ABT | 1536 | 787 | -39.00% | -0.97 | -40.3% | 0.976 |
| ADM | 1536 | 468 | -8.36% | -0.13 | -30.8% | 0.613 |
| AMD | 1538 | 852 | +12.63% | 0.24 | -33.2% | 0.298 |
| AMGN | 1538 | 474 | -2.79% | -0.02 | -23.5% | 0.516 |
| AMZN | 1538 | 837 | +2.51% | 0.12 | -20.6% | 0.403 |
| AVGO | 1538 | 619 | +11.14% | 0.23 | -31.0% | 0.312 |
| BAC | 1535 | 893 | -55.01% | -1.24 | -57.8% | 0.993 |
| BRK.B | 1535 | 569 | -18.48% | -0.52 | -24.1% | 0.863 |
| CAT | 1535 | 602 | -15.35% | -0.21 | -31.5% | 0.669 |
| COP | 1535 | 862 | -27.43% | -0.32 | -52.3% | 0.736 |
| COST | 1538 | 390 | -1.99% | -0.01 | -17.3% | 0.509 |
| CRM | 1535 | 840 | -45.04% | -0.72 | -53.3% | 0.928 |
| CSCO | 1538 | 931 | -31.20% | -0.63 | -43.7% | 0.899 |
| CVX | 1535 | 862 | -25.92% | -0.49 | -35.6% | 0.840 |
| DHR | 1535 | 636 | -23.47% | -0.39 | -36.1% | 0.794 |
| DIS | 1535 | 869 | -47.83% | -0.92 | -49.7% | 0.970 |
| GE | 1536 | 798 | +12.71% | 0.25 | -24.6% | 0.302 |
| GOOGL | 1538 | 771 | +2.49% | 0.11 | -25.2% | 0.413 |
| HD | 1535 | 710 | -9.27% | -0.13 | -31.9% | 0.595 |
| IBM | 1535 | 688 | +33.39% | 0.62 | -18.8% | 0.106 |
| INTC | 1538 | 889 | -16.83% | -0.07 | -40.3% | 0.564 |
| JNJ | 1535 | 862 | -26.91% | -0.80 | -28.8% | 0.956 |
| JPM | 1535 | 903 | -29.83% | -0.59 | -35.2% | 0.889 |
| KO | 1536 | 914 | -29.19% | -0.83 | -29.1% | 0.959 |
| LIN | 1535 | 441 | +1.06% | 0.07 | -17.3% | 0.445 |
| MA | 1535 | 718 | -34.85% | -0.78 | -39.0% | 0.946 |
| MCD | 1535 | 625 | -29.53% | -0.93 | -31.2% | 0.970 |
| META | 1538 | 885 | -11.19% | -0.04 | -27.2% | 0.536 |
| MRK | 1535 | 835 | -44.56% | -1.07 | -46.0% | 0.984 |
| MSFT | 1538 | 916 | -17.43% | -0.24 | -25.7% | 0.686 |
| NFLX | 1538 | 731 | -24.35% | -0.23 | -42.1% | 0.684 |
| NVDA | 1538 | 893 | +21.13% | 0.31 | -32.2% | 0.267 |
| ORLY | 1538 | 149 | -12.32% | -0.55 | -19.2% | 0.875 |
| PEP | 1538 | 766 | -31.80% | -0.91 | -32.9% | 0.972 |
| PFE | 1535 | 818 | -41.12% | -0.93 | -45.1% | 0.971 |
| PG | 1535 | 847 | -28.52% | -0.79 | -31.2% | 0.946 |
| PM | 1535 | 695 | +46.63% | 0.95 | -10.1% | 0.027 |
| QCOM | 1538 | 860 | -4.53% | 0.06 | -35.7% | 0.451 |
| QQQ | 1508 | 1066 | -18.55% | -0.24 | -32.8% | 0.684 |
| SLB | 1535 | 877 | -11.38% | -0.03 | -36.9% | 0.529 |
| SPY | 1508 | 1123 | -20.87% | -0.39 | -27.7% | 0.786 |
| TMO | 1535 | 443 | -23.55% | -0.52 | -30.9% | 0.852 |
| TSLA | 1538 | 870 | +42.83% | 0.43 | -43.9% | 0.195 |
| TXN | 1538 | 840 | -22.66% | -0.28 | -30.2% | 0.720 |
| UNH | 1535 | 729 | -14.24% | -0.23 | -24.7% | 0.677 |
| V | 1535 | 884 | -29.95% | -0.68 | -34.5% | 0.921 |
| VZ | 1535 | 871 | -28.54% | -0.74 | -31.3% | 0.936 |
| WFC | 1535 | 900 | -25.31% | -0.32 | -45.1% | 0.728 |
| WMT | 1535 | 830 | +29.88% | 0.63 | -13.8% | 0.108 |
| XLB | 1507 | 940 | -34.14% | -0.75 | -37.5% | 0.939 |
| XLE | 1508 | 917 | -34.89% | -0.55 | -47.6% | 0.868 |
| XLF | 1507 | 955 | -31.50% | -0.66 | -38.3% | 0.913 |
| XLI | 1507 | 979 | -40.15% | -0.95 | -43.6% | 0.975 |
| XLK | 1508 | 1020 | -9.36% | -0.07 | -27.5% | 0.568 |
| XLP | 1507 | 950 | -31.56% | -0.98 | -34.4% | 0.977 |
| XLU | 1507 | 942 | +13.24% | 0.31 | -18.1% | 0.271 |
| XLV | 1508 | 945 | -34.95% | -0.95 | -37.3% | 0.974 |
| XLY | 1507 | 1014 | -40.18% | -0.73 | -43.7% | 0.935 |
| XOM | 1535 | 924 | -38.73% | -0.73 | -43.5% | 0.938 |
pooled: Sharpe -0.28, p=1.000 -> FAIL pilot-50 stocks: mean Sharpe -0.32 over 50 names (12 positive) ETFs: mean Sharpe -0.54 over 11 names (1 positive) pilot-50 pooled: Sharpe -0.24, p=1.000 -> FAIL
Verdicts 2 — 50-stock pilot (2026-09-09)
FAIL again — no 1-min bot build. 50 liquid names, 2020-07→2026-09, same pre-registered spec: pooled Sharpe -0.24, p=1.000; 12/50 positive, best single name PM p=0.027 (across 50 names you EXPECT ~2.5 p<0.05 by luck — this is noise wearing a costume). Same signature as the ETFs: morning breakouts fade by the close.
Two independent universes (11 ETFs + 50 stocks), same verdict, same mechanism. The 1-minute trend hypothesis is rejected with fresh data on fresh names. Per the parked intraday stance and the Step-5 principle (no validated 1-min edge exists for any learner to manage), the self-learning-1-min-bot project stops here: no training loop, no executor build. Revisit only on a NEW mechanism hypothesis, not a new parameterization of the open.