Train: 51 flagship names | Test: 20 seed-42 unseen names | 20y | region-A (0.50 breaker)
| Universe | Model | Total | CAGR | MaxDD | PF | Trades | 2023-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Test (unseen) | pooled zero-shot | +935.0% | +12.56% | 40.7% | 1.34 | 1,389 | +99.0% |
| Test (unseen) | per-symbol ref | +396.9% | +8.46% | 39.3% | 1.24 | 1,527 | +91.5% |
| Train (flagship) | pooled | +845.8% | +12.05% | 40.7% | 1.41 | 1,365 | +119.9% |
| Train (flagship) | per-symbol ref | +2161.8% | +17.10% | 36.7% | 1.46 | 1,621 | +111.9% |
Verdict
TRANSFER WORKS if the zero-shot unseen PF >= 1.30 with positive 2023-26 (beats the per-symbol 1.24 baseline on true never-seen names). TRANSFER FAILS if PF stays ~1.2 or lower: the pooled model dilutes the per-symbol edge without adding cross-stock generalization.