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  • base OOS SR 1.47; RL OOS SR 1.68

1. Cross-sectional IC (RL prob vs 21d demeaned fwd)

  • mean rank IC +0.0498, t = +2.62, n = 126 rebalances

2. Sub-period OOS Sharpe

WindowbaseRL
2016-20211.451.71
2021-20261.491.69

3. Cost stress: RL OOS SR net25 1.59

4. Mean daily turnover: base 0.033, RL 0.031

5. 1000-shuffle placebo: mean 1.42, p95 1.57, max 1.74, p(SR >= RL 1.68) = 0.004

6. DSR(n_trials=6) nan, haircut SR 1.54, PSR 1.00

7. corr(RL prob, residual-momentum score) = -0.367