rows: 3550 dates: 71 emb_dim: 1280 trials K=152 per-fold AUC: [0.563, 0.513, 0.479, 0.445, 0.508, 0.5, 0.564, 0.513] mean 0.511 permutation control AUC: mean 0.484 (chance baseline; real must exceed it) pooled-OOS IC(pred,fwd) = -0.0196 (n=3200) | momentum IC = -0.0302
top-decile pred +2.021% | EW +1.755% | mom-top +2.379% (n=64 dates) pred_top - EW : +0.266% CI[-0.698%,+1.205%] pred_top - mom: -0.358% CI[-1.792%,+1.044%]
Caveat: backfilled embeddings may overlap the model's pretraining corpus; single model/seed; purged CV but small n.