shadow dates scored: 78
- IC[point]: +0.0134 (t=+0.74, p=0.2322, n=78)
- IC[pup]: +0.0068 (t=+0.40, p=0.3564, n=78)
- IC[risk]: +0.0111 (t=+0.65, p=0.2638, n=78)
top-half forecast, low-width mean +1.5417% vs high-width +2.1952% (diff -0.6535%, p=0.8590) uncertainty calibration corr(width, |err|): +0.282 (n=3900)
VERDICTS: quantiles: no selection lift (p_up/point/risk all ns); width is error-magnitude info (calibration), not return direction. Caveat: backfilled windows may overlap pretraining; directional only.