shadow dates scored: 42
- IC[point]: -0.0385 (t=-0.64, p=0.7328, n=42)
- IC[pup]: +0.0024 (t=+0.04, p=0.4734, n=42)
- IC[risk]: +0.0079 (t=+0.13, p=0.4348, n=42) uncertainty calibration corr(width, |err|): +0.157 (n=336)
VERDICTS: quantiles: no selection lift (p_up/point/risk all ns); width is error-magnitude info (calibration), not return direction. Caveat: backfilled windows may overlap pretraining; directional only.