ADAPTIVE — live sleeve
A forward paper test of a sizing overlay on a frozen Ethereum trend signal: after each day it scores the outcome and scales the next position. Research found no reliable improvement, so it runs in observe-only mode on the shared account.
Backtest — · — · —·Live −1.18% · -0.17 · −1.35%·Read paper →·Dashboard →
A forward paper test of a sizing overlay on a frozen Ethereum trend signal: after each day it scores the outcome and scales the next position. Research found no reliable improvement, so it runs in observe-only mode.
Ethereum.
Daily.
No promoted backtest — research saw no reliable lift.
Research found no significant edge over the plain trend signal. Runs small, unlevered, and observe-only.
| Sleeve | Sep 26 | Oct 26* | Total | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adaptive (ETH + learner) | -1.4 | +1.2 | -0.2% | 50% |
* Current month is partial.
Today, month-to-date, last month, year-to-date and year-over-year returns by sleeve, with day-by-day history.
| Sleeve | Today | Prev day | MTD | Last mo | YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adaptive (ETH + learner) | −0.95% | +0.09% | +1.19% | −1.35% | — | — |
| S&P 500 | — | −1.79% | −0.87% | −0.59% | — | — |
Today is live vs the prior close; weekends show — until the next session. MTD/YTD anchor on the prior month/year-end close; YoY needs ~1y of history. The vs S&P 500 view subtracts the benchmark's same-period return.
| Equity | vs S&P 500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31live | $9,981.47 | −0.95% | — |
| 2026-10-29 | $10,077.02 | +0.09% | +0.45pp |
| 2026-10-28 | $10,068.13 | +0.34% | +0.00pp |
| 2026-10-27 | $10,034.18 | +0.26% | −0.32pp |
| 2026-10-26 | $10,008.03 | +0.24% | −0.47pp |
| 2026-10-23 | $9,983.88 | +0.10% | +0.65pp |
| 2026-10-22 | $9,973.84 | −0.64% | +0.54pp |
| 2026-10-21 | $10,038.13 | +0.30% | −0.22pp |
| 2026-10-20 | $10,007.63 | +0.29% | −0.04pp |
| 2026-10-19 | $9,978.93 | −0.01% | −0.43pp |
| Symbol | Qty | Value | % | P&L | P&L % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | 89.165 | $2,585.78 | 25.9% | +$37.12 | +1.5% |
| SPY | 1.498 | $1,132.45 | 11.3% | −$7.58 | −0.7% |
| XLF | 18.576 | $1,049.75 | 10.5% | +$1.33 | +0.1% |
| EFA | 9.238 | $954.95 | 9.6% | −$18.39 | −1.9% |
| XLV | 4.216 | $779.39 | 7.8% | +$73.01 | +10.3% |
| XLE | 9.373 | $656.30 | 6.6% | +$49.31 | +8.1% |
| DBC | 18.294 | $614.86 | 6.2% | +$6.81 | +1.1% |
| QQQ | 0.878 | $606.60 | 6.1% | −$27.58 | −4.3% |
| EEM | 7.666 | $467.91 | 4.7% | −$47.68 | −9.3% |
| XLK | 2.419 | $434.22 | 4.4% | −$24.25 | −5.3% |
| USO | 1.672 | $282.32 | 2.8% | +$20.84 | +8.0% |
| GDX | 2.901 | $223.62 | 2.2% | −$52.13 | −18.9% |
| Shown (12) | — | $9,788.15 | 98.1% | +$10.81 | +0.1% |
| Cash | — | $193.31 | 1.9% | — | — |
% of equity · P&L unrealized · positions + cash = 100%
12 positions · top 5 = 66% · effective N = 7.8
Gross market value, so both legs of a hedge count. Cash is excluded; P&L in the drill-down is unrealized.
| Time (ET) | Symbol | Side | Qty | Fill | Value | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 9:33 AM | UUP | sell | 5.2392 | $28.68 | $150.26 | +0.35% | +$0.52 |
| Sep 28, 9:33 AM | DBC | sell | 1.0405 | $32.69 | $34.01 | −1.45% | −$0.50 |
| Sep 28, 9:32 AM | EEM | buy | 7.6656 | $67.26 | $515.58 | — | — |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | QQQ | sell | 0.047 | $740.60 | $34.81 | +2.99% | +$1.01 |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | SPY | sell | 0.1043 | $768.48 | $80.15 | +1.38% | +$1.09 |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | EFA | sell | 0.6997 | $104.98 | $73.45 | −0.97% | −$0.72 |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | GDX | sell | 0.1922 | $88.01 | $16.92 | −8.32% | −$1.54 |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | XLK | sell | 0.1209 | $195.27 | $23.61 | +3.43% | +$0.78 |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | XLE | sell | 0.5022 | $62.77 | $31.52 | −4.86% | −$1.61 |
| Sep 28, 9:30 AM | XLV | sell | 0.2748 | $169.97 | $46.71 | +2.15% | +$0.98 |
| Sep 25, 9:33 AM | EEM | sell | 7.5447 | $67.70 | $510.79 | −1.27% | −$6.56 |
| Sep 25, 9:32 AM | UUP | buy | 4.4121 | $28.61 | $126.25 | — | — |
| Sep 25, 9:30 AM | QQQ | buy | 0.0576 | $742.73 | $42.78 | — | — |
| Sep 25, 9:30 AM | GDX | buy | 0.1835 | $92.38 | $16.95 | — | — |
| Sep 25, 9:30 AM | EFA | buy | 0.513 | $105.14 | $53.94 | — | — |
Live stats are annualized from daily equity; short windows are noisy. Backtest numbers are from the paper’s full window.