CONVICTION — live sleeve
A residual-momentum base book (top-50 large-caps, held about a month) whose weights are tilted by a per-name reinforcement-learning conviction score instead of equal weight. Live since 2026-09-28.
Backtest +4345% (OOS 2016+) · 1.68 · −33%·Live −4.73% · -1.11 · −0.97%·Dashboard →
A residual-momentum base of the top 50 large-caps, held about a month, with weights tilted by a per-name reinforcement-learning score instead of equal weight.
US large-caps.
Monthly.
Backtest is net of costs; live fills are paper.
Backtest Sharpe 1.47 rising to 1.68 with conviction weighting, max drawdown −33%, replicated on an independent window. Long-only and unlevered.
| Sleeve | Sep 26 | Oct 26* | Total | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction Stack | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.5% | 0% |
* Current month is partial.
Today, month-to-date, last month, year-to-date and year-over-year returns by sleeve, with day-by-day history.
| Sleeve | Today | Prev day | MTD | Last mo | YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction Stack | −0.97% | +0.35% | −0.09% | −0.38% | — | — |
| S&P 500 | −1.62% | −0.36% | −0.70% | −0.59% | — | — |
Today is live vs the prior close; weekends show — until the next session. MTD/YTD anchor on the prior month/year-end close; YoY needs ~1y of history. The vs S&P 500 view subtracts the benchmark's same-period return.
| Equity | vs S&P 500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30live | $9,953.67 | −0.97% | +0.66pp |
| 2026-10-29 | $10,050.89 | +0.35% | +0.71pp |
| 2026-10-28 | $10,016.32 | −0.07% | −0.40pp |
| 2026-10-27 | $10,022.97 | −0.07% | −0.65pp |
| 2026-10-26 | $10,029.83 | +0.13% | −0.58pp |
| 2026-10-23 | $10,016.75 | −0.29% | +0.26pp |
| 2026-10-22 | $10,045.91 | +0.08% | +1.25pp |
| 2026-10-21 | $10,038.22 | −0.01% | −0.54pp |
| 2026-10-20 | $10,039.20 | +0.31% | −0.01pp |
| 2026-10-19 | $10,008.19 | +0.00% | −0.43pp |
| Symbol | Qty | Value | % | P&L | P&L % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | 0.612 | $392.69 | 3.9% | +$1.01 | +0.3% |
| UNH | 0.782 | $317.91 | 3.2% | +$2.16 | +0.7% |
| BIIB | 1.123 | $284.81 | 2.9% | +$19.39 | +7.3% |
| AMAT | 0.722 | $280.83 | 2.8% | −$42.89 | −13.3% |
| CNC | 3.429 | $229.49 | 2.3% | −$4.71 | −2.0% |
| ADM | 2.772 | $213.17 | 2.1% | −$8.01 | −3.6% |
| NVDA | 0.880 | $180.83 | 1.8% | −$8.07 | −4.3% |
| CB | 0.441 | $161.30 | 1.6% | +$2.43 | +1.5% |
| PG | 0.982 | $159.91 | 1.6% | +$2.43 | +1.5% |
| CL | 1.634 | $156.98 | 1.6% | +$5.13 | +3.4% |
| BRK.B | 0.284 | $155.12 | 1.6% | +$12.61 | +8.8% |
| INTC | 2.264 | $147.19 | 1.5% | −$63.86 | −30.3% |
| ADP | 0.465 | $137.29 | 1.4% | +$16.39 | +13.6% |
| MO | 1.706 | $133.27 | 1.3% | +$4.19 | +3.3% |
| PGR | 0.563 | $130.86 | 1.3% | +$2.17 | +1.7% |
| Shown (41) | — | $4,968.76 | 49.9% | −$48.85 | −1.0% |
| Cash | — | $4,984.86 | 50.1% | — | — |
% of equity · P&L unrealized · positions + cash = 100%
41 positions · top 5 = 30% · effective N = 27.6
Gross market value, so both legs of a hedge count. Cash is excluded; P&L in the drill-down is unrealized.
| Time (ET) | Symbol | Side | Qty | Fill | Value | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 9:32 AM | BMY | sell | 2.3698 | $61.36 | $145.41 | −3.61% | −$5.44 |
| Oct 29, 9:32 AM | MRK | buy | 0.7052 | $145.14 | $102.35 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:32 AM | PFE | buy | 2.8052 | $30.04 | $84.26 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:32 AM | PG | buy | 0.9819 | $160.39 | $157.49 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:32 AM | BAC | sell | 2.7196 | $51.84 | $140.97 | −6.46% | −$9.74 |
| Oct 29, 9:32 AM | CNC | buy | 3.4285 | $68.31 | $234.20 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:31 AM | CSX | buy | 2.5198 | $52.73 | $132.86 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:31 AM | CSCO | buy | 1.2443 | $110.64 | $137.67 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:31 AM | MO | buy | 1.7061 | $75.66 | $129.08 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:31 AM | DE | buy | 0.0709 | $628.32 | $44.55 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:30 AM | INTC | buy | 2.2643 | $93.21 | $211.06 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:30 AM | CL | buy | 1.6344 | $92.91 | $151.85 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:30 AM | MDT | buy | 1.0697 | $96.22 | $102.93 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 9:30 AM | BSX | sell | 3.4436 | $42.56 | $146.56 | −2.12% | −$3.17 |
| Oct 29, 9:30 AM | MA | buy | 0.1979 | $616.46 | $122.00 | — | — |
Live stats are annualized from daily equity; short windows are noisy. Backtest numbers are from the paper’s full window.