HOURLY — live sleeve
A forward paper test of an hourly momentum book on US stocks: each hour it goes long the top 20 and short the bottom 20, equal-weight and dollar-neutral. Unproven and expected to lose — the gross signal is weak and the trading costs are heavy. It runs on a reused account to record real fills; the monthly Conviction Stack is the validated cadence.
Backtest REJECT — net −97% OOS @10bps · 1.61 gross (net negative) · −97%·Live −27.74% · -7.95 · −3.90%·Read paper →·Dashboard →
An hourly momentum book on US stocks: each hour it goes long the 20 strongest names and short the 20 weakest, equal-weight and dollar-neutral. It is a deliberate live test of an edge research rejected — the gross signal is weak and the trading costs are expected to make it lose money.
Liquid US stocks.
Hourly during the trading day.
Costs are the whole point: heavy turnover turns the strategy deeply negative once any real spread applies.
Unproven and expected to lose — a live cost-measurement run, not a promoted strategy.
| Sleeve | Sep 26 | Oct 26* | Total | Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hourly 1h Momentum | +0.2 | -3.9 | -3.8% | 50% |
* Current month is partial.
Today, month-to-date, last month, year-to-date and year-over-year returns by sleeve, with day-by-day history.
| Sleeve | Today | Prev day | MTD | Last mo | YTD | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hourly 1h Momentum | −0.88% | −0.40% | −3.90% | +0.15% | — | — |
| S&P 500 | −1.79% | −0.36% | −0.87% | −0.59% | — | — |
Today is live vs the prior close; weekends show — until the next session. MTD/YTD anchor on the prior month/year-end close; YoY needs ~1y of history. The vs S&P 500 view subtracts the benchmark's same-period return.
| Equity | vs S&P 500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30live | $96,244.43 | −0.88% | +0.91pp |
| 2026-10-29 | $97,101.08 | −0.40% | −0.04pp |
| 2026-10-28 | $97,492.14 | −0.47% | −0.81pp |
| 2026-10-27 | $97,954.58 | +0.15% | −0.44pp |
| 2026-10-26 | $97,812.18 | −0.23% | −0.94pp |
| 2026-10-23 | $98,033.12 | −0.13% | +0.42pp |
| 2026-10-22 | $98,161.80 | −0.14% | +1.04pp |
| 2026-10-21 | $98,300.30 | +0.03% | −0.49pp |
| 2026-10-20 | $98,268.66 | −0.22% | −0.55pp |
| 2026-10-19 | $98,488.58 | −0.28% | −0.71pp |
| Symbol | Qty | Value | % | P&L | P&L % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 6.000 | $1,548.84 | 1.6% | −$5.28 | −0.3% |
| UNP | 5.000 | $1,520.00 | 1.6% | +$2.25 | +0.1% |
| ICE | 9.000 | $1,519.65 | 1.6% | −$7.65 | −0.5% |
| XOM | 8.000 | $1,496.16 | 1.6% | +$3.76 | +0.3% |
| BKNG | 10.000 | $1,487.80 | 1.5% | +$6.00 | +0.4% |
| ABT | 14.000 | $1,487.50 | 1.5% | −$0.84 | −0.1% |
| CB | 4.000 | $1,456.48 | 1.5% | −$4.64 | −0.3% |
| SBUX | 14.000 | $1,452.08 | 1.5% | −$14.70 | −1.0% |
| CSX | 28.000 | $1,433.88 | 1.5% | −$22.40 | −1.5% |
| CVX | 6.000 | $1,415.31 | 1.5% | +$3.99 | +0.3% |
| UPS | 13.000 | $1,404.53 | 1.5% | −$8.70 | −0.6% |
| COP | 9.000 | $1,384.23 | 1.4% | +$6.33 | +0.5% |
| JNJ | 5.000 | $1,366.00 | 1.4% | −$18.15 | −1.3% |
| DE | 2.000 | $1,350.96 | 1.4% | +$4.96 | +0.4% |
| SHW | 4.000 | $1,330.44 | 1.4% | +$4.04 | +0.3% |
| Shown (40) | — | -$12,481.51 | -13.0% | −$173.18 | — |
| Cash | — | $108,725.94 | 113.0% | — | — |
% of equity · P&L unrealized · positions + cash = 100%
40 positions · top 5 = 14% · effective N = 39.7
Gross market value, so both legs of a hedge count. Cash is excluded; P&L in the drill-down is unrealized.
| Time (ET) | Symbol | Side | Qty | Fill | Value | P&L % | P&L $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | PGR | sell | 6 | $232.80 | $1,396.77 | +1.66% | +$22.77 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | SO | sell | 15 | $94.16 | $1,412.40 | +0.03% | +$0.45 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | UNP | buy | 5 | $303.55 | $1,517.75 | — | — |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | CNC | sell | 21 | $67.91 | $1,426.18 | +1.42% | +$20.02 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | XOM | buy | 8 | $186.55 | $1,492.40 | — | — |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | IBM | sell | 6 | $256.42 | $1,538.52 | −0.07% | −$1.12 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | V | sell | 3 | $414.86 | $1,244.59 | +1.16% | +$14.26 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | HON | sell | 7 | $219.16 | $1,534.11 | −0.73% | −$11.32 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | NOW | sell | 14 | $103.79 | $1,453.02 | −4.63% | −$70.57 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | PH | sell | 2 | $893.68 | $1,787.36 | −2.02% | −$36.76 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | MO | sell | 18 | $78.16 | $1,406.88 | +2.59% | +$35.46 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | QCOM | sell | 8 | $162.50 | $1,300.00 | −7.53% | −$105.84 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | SYK | sell | 5 | $292.93 | $1,464.65 | −1.04% | −$15.35 |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | NVDA | buy | 7 | $202.15 | $1,415.05 | — | — |
| Oct 30, 3:01 PM | PM | sell | 7 | $208.27 | $1,457.89 | −0.40% | −$5.81 |
Live stats are annualized from daily equity; short windows are noisy. Backtest numbers are from the paper’s full window.