Alpaca Paper Trading — Live

Quant Trading Research & Paper-Trading Lab

Systematic strategy research with a falsification-first protocol: every candidate faces walk-forward validation, Monte-Carlo permutation nulls, cost stress and virgin holdouts before anything trades — most edges die there, and that is the point.

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01

Live paper accounts

auto-refreshes every minute

ETF Trend Sleeve

live

28-ETF dual SMA200+ROC60 trend, inverse-vol weights

−0.32%
Return since start
−1.44pp vs S&P 500·S&P +1.12%
Equity
$997
Started with
$1,000
Backtest CAGR
+5.4% (1×)
Sharpe · MaxDD
0.64 · −26.4%

Flagship ML Rotation

live

59-name walk-forward ML rotation, h5+h21 blend + top-8 overlay

−1.22%
Return since start
−0.98pp vs S&P 500·S&P −0.24%
Equity
$9,878
Started with
$10,000
Backtest CAGR
+27.9% (2021–26 OOS)
Sharpe · MaxDD
1.26 · −19.4%

BTC Trend Overlay

live

Dual SMA200+ROC60 daily trend on BTC/USD, dodge-the-bear

+3.96%
Return since start
+3.46pp vs S&P 500·S&P +0.50%
Equity
$10,396
Started with
$10,000
Backtest CAGR
+17.2% (2021–26)
Sharpe · MaxDD
0.62 · −29.7%

Treasury Diversifier

live

TSMOM 126d on 6 Treasuries (SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT/AGG/TIP); holds positive-trend bonds as equity shock-absorber (corr ≈ −0.2 to SPY)

+0.00%
Return since start
−0.68pp vs S&P 500·S&P +0.68%
Equity
$10,000
Started with
$10,000
Backtest CAGR
+3.5% (2006–26)
Sharpe · MaxDD
0.6 · −9.6%
02

Equity curves vs S&P 500

indexed to 100 at each start
ETF Trend SleeveFlagship ML RotationBTC Trend OverlayTreasury DiversifierS&P 500
03

Current holdings

top positions by value

ETF Trend Sleeve

13
SymbolQtyValue
UUP7.915$222
XLF1.480$86
SPY0.107$82
EFA0.678$73
VNQ0.718$70
IWM0.224$67
XLP0.746$64
XLI0.334$60
DBC1.616$50
XLE0.774$48
GLD0.100$42
XBI0.213$36
GDX0.204$21

Flagship ML Rotation

8
SymbolQtyValue
A10.730$1,692
CHTR10.403$1,544
AMT8.669$1,510
CTAS7.347$1,500
CBRE10.101$1,487
DXCM14.440$1,289
APTV26.202$1,191
AZO0.312$917

BTC Trend Overlay

1
SymbolQtyValue
BTCUSD0.126$10,159
04

Research findings

full grids · held-out windows untouched
  1. 01

    Flagship ML Rotation (a_k8)

    Walk-forward ML rotation over 59 S&P names with h5+h21 horizon blend and top-8 cross-sectional entry overlay: +27.9% CAGR, Sharpe 1.26, MaxDD −19.4% on the untouched 2021–26 window. Monte-Carlo permutation p = 0.000.

    VALIDATED ALPHA
  2. 02

    Multi-Asset Trend Portfolio

    Dual SMA200+ROC60 daily trend rule across 28 liquid ETFs: net-positive on 28/28 assets over 20 years, robust across neighboring windows (Sharpe 0.63–0.78). Deployed as a live paper sleeve.

    VALIDATED DIVERSIFIER
  3. 03

    BTC Trend Overlay

    Daily crypto trend overlay passed both-halves validation, Monte-Carlo stress and taker-fee stress tests. Dodge-the-bear design: −29.7% MaxDD vs buy-and-hold −77%, flat through the entire 2026 bear.

    VALIDATED, LIVE
  4. 04

    Treasury Diversifier

    TSMOM 126d across 6 Treasuries (SHY/IEI/IEF/TLT/AGG/TIP) holds positive-trend bonds as the book's shock-absorber: negative correlation to equities (~−0.2), MaxDD under −10%. Deployed as a live paper sleeve on its own account.

    VALIDATED DIVERSIFIER
  5. 05

    Combined Account Frontier

    Exhaustive 12,341-combination allocation sweep over the four sleeves: max-Sharpe mix ≈ 73% flagship / 15% ETH / 12% BTC → +28%/yr at −15% MaxDD on the out-of-sample window.

    PORTFOLIO STUDY
  6. 06

    Universe Expansion (446 names)

    Scaling the flagship edge to the full S&P cross-section collapses the profit factor to 1.04. The edge is name-concentrated — the breadth hypothesis was falsified with a full-grid, both-halves protocol.

    REJECTED
  7. 07

    Equity Stat-Arb L/S

    Dollar-neutral long-short over cached walk-forward scores: a faint gross spread (Sharpe ≈ 0.45) dies under realistic costs. Includes a documented post-mortem of a leverage-artifact backtest bug caught during review.

    REJECTED
  8. 08

    Intraday Microstructure (13 edge families)

    VPIN, order-book imbalance, taker flow, lead-lag, basis, carry, funding, positioning and more — every family rejected after 5bps fees on real trade tape.

    CLOSED ON EVIDENCE
  9. 09

    ML Return Prediction

    117 features, walk-forward with embargo, poison-controlled leakage audit. Negative OOS IC at every feature count; the poison control proves the harness converts real signal to profit — the signal simply is not there.

    CLOSED ON EVIDENCE

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